第二编 货币的价值
第十二章 货币客观交换价值变动的社会后果
章节大纲
一、现在商品与未来商品的交换
People often exchange present goods for future goods, for example by lending money today (a present good) in exchange for a promise of repayment of future principal plus interest, or by agreeing today to exchange goods against money in the future. Although business-people take great caution regarding changes in the prices of particular commodities, they typically do not take into account the possible fall in the objective value of money itself. To the extent that people do protect themselves in contracts from possible changes in the value of a currency, it is only a paper currency the value of which might fall relative to a currency backed by gold. Hardly anyone (at the time of Mises’s writing) realizes that the exchange value of gold itself could change during the length of a contract.
人们经常用现在的商品换取未来的商品，例如今天借出货币（现在的商品），以换取未来的本金和利息的偿还承诺，或者今天同意在未来用商品换取货币。虽然商人们对特定商品价格的变化非常谨慎，但他们通常没有考虑到货币本身的客观价值可能下降。如果人们确实在合同中保护自己不受通货价值可能变化的影响，那么它只是一种纸币，其价值可能相对于黄金支持的通货而言下跌。几乎没有人（在米塞斯写作时）意识到黄金本身的交换价值可能会在合约期限内发生变化。
If changes in the purchasing power of money could be anticipated, then their impact could be offset by altering the terms of credit transactions. If both lenders and borrowers expect a weaker currency in the future (i.e., rising prices of most goods and services quoted in the currency), then lenders will insist on charging a higher interest rate and borrowers will be willing to pay it, because loans will be repaid in weaker currency.
如果可以预期货币购买力的变化，那么可以通过改变信贷交易条款来抵消其影响。如果贷款人和借款人都预期未来通货会走弱（即，以通货报价的大多数商品和服务的价格上涨），那么贷款人将坚持收取更高的利息，而借款人也将愿意支付，因为贷款将使用贬值的通货偿还。
二、经济计算与会计
Accountancy is imperfect in several respects. For example, it relies on subjective estimates of uncertain factors, such as the value of inventory (which is dependent on future demand) and the likelihood of default by the issuers of bonds. Yet another major flaw is that accountants use monetary figures as if they were akin to measures of length and weight. But since the purchasing power of money itself can change, accountancy is analogous to an architect designing blueprints in a world where rulers have variable lengths. Monetary depreciation can cause businesspeople to overestimate their profits and unwittingly engage in capital consumption.
会计在几个方面是不完善的。例如，它依赖于对不确定因素的主观估计，如存货价值（取决于未来需求）和债券发行人违约的可能性。另一个主要的缺陷是，会计师们像使用长度和重量这种度量标准一样使用货币数字。但由于货币本身的购买力可能会发生变化，因此会计就像一个建筑师在一个标尺长度可变的世界里设计蓝图。货币贬值会导致商人们高估他们的利润，并在不经意中进行了资本消耗。
三、当仅使用一种货币时货币价值变动的社会后果
If the quantity of a commodity such as coal is suddenly and unexpectedly increased, it will cause its price to drop. This will hurt those people who were holding large amounts of coal (such as the owners of coal mines and wholesalers) at the moment of the price drop, and it will help the consumers of coal (such as the owners of railroads and power plants). However, the gains will exceed the losses for the community as a whole, because the greater quantity of coal can yield more goods and services.
如果煤炭等商品的数量突然意外地增加，将导致其价格下降。这将损害那些在价格下跌时持有大量煤炭的人（如煤矿所有者和批发商们），并将帮助煤炭消费者（如铁路和发电厂的所有者）。然而，整个社区的收益将超过损失，因为更多的煤炭可以产出更多的商品和服务。
Things are different with the money commodity. Insofar as its monetary services are concerned, additional quantities confer no net benefits on the community. When new quantities of money enter the economy (from a new gold mine, for example), it spreads unevenly throughout the system. The chief beneficiaries are the original owners, then those upon whom they first spend the new money, and so on. The losers are those whose incomes (measured in money) do not rise even as they see prices going up in the things that they buy. Wealth is redistributed from some groups to others, but the community as a whole is not made richer by the influx of new money (except possibly indirectly if the beneficiaries of the inflation make more productive use of their redistributed wealth than the former owners).
货币商品的情况有所不同。就其货币服务而言，额外的数量不会给社区带来净收益。当新的货币进入经济体时（例如来自一个新的金矿），它在整个系统中的分布不均匀。主要受益人是原始所有者，然后是与他们第一次花“新”钱进行交易的人，等等。输家是那些即使看到购买的东西价格上涨但自己的收入（以货币衡量）却没有上涨的人。财富从一些群体重新分配给其他群体，但新货币的流入并不能使整个社区变得更富裕（除非通货膨胀的受益者能够比以前的财富所有者更有效地利用他们的再分配财富，来间接地使整个社区变得更富裕）。
四、两种类型货币间交换比率变动的结果
The uneven increase in prices due to an influx of new money (either from gold discoveries or from the issuance of more paper money and fiduciary media) can lead to redistribution even among groups using different currencies. For a modern example, suppose initially that one U.S. dollar trades for one euro, and that the price of a bushel of wheat initially is $5 and also €5. Then the Federal Reserve promises to sharply increase the quantity of dollars over the next few months, so that speculators on the foreign exchange market push down the value of the dollar so that it now trades for only one-half of a euro.
新货币的涌入（无论是来自黄金发现，还是来自更多纸币和信用媒介的发行）引起了价格的不均匀上涨，可能会导致使用不同货币的集团之间发生财富再分配。举一个现代的例子，假设最初一美元兑换一欧元，一蒲式耳小麦的价格最初是5美元，也就是5欧元。然后美联储承诺在未来几个月内大幅增加美元数量，使外汇市场的投机者压低美元的价值，使一美元现在只能交易半欧元。
In this situation, the price of U.S. wheat would be €2.50 from the perspective of European millers, while wheat purchased from European farmers would be the original €5. The demand for American exported wheat would increase, while the American demand for European wheat would collapse. The prices of wheat in the two currencies would quickly adjust until balance had been restored, with U.S. wheat selling for (say) $8 and European wheat selling for €4. But even after this quick adjustment, there would be a lasting advantage given to American wheat exporters, because they could sell wheat for $8 instead of $5, even though their expenses (on labor, tractors, etc.) had not yet risen proportionally. European millers and consumers of bread would also benefit, because from their perspective the price of wheat would have fallen from €5 to €4 per bushel, even while their money incomes stayed the same. Two large groups of losers would be U.S. consumers and European wheat farmers. Only after all U.S. domestic prices had adjusted to the new quantity of dollars would the redistribution cease.
在这种情况下，从欧洲面粉厂的角度来看，美国小麦的价格将是2.50欧元，而从欧洲农民手中购买小麦的价格仍是原来的5欧元。对于美国出口的小麦的需求将增加，而美国对欧洲小麦的需求将锐减。两种货币的小麦价格将迅速调整，直到恢复平衡，美国小麦售价（比如）8美元，欧洲小麦售价4欧元。但即使在这种快速调整之后，美国小麦出口商仍将获得持久的优势，因为他们可以以8美元而不是5美元的价格出售小麦，尽管他们的开支（劳动力，拖拉机等）尚未按比例上涨。欧洲的面粉和面包消费者也会受益，因为从他们的角度来看，即使他们的货币收入保持不变，小麦的价格也会从每蒲式耳5欧元降至4欧元。两大类输家将是美国消费者和欧洲小麦种植户。只有在所有美国国内价格调整到新的美元数量后，再分配才会停止。
技术说明
On pages 195–96, Mises writes, “When anybody buys (or sells) corn, cotton, or sugar futures ... he is well aware of the risks that are involved in the transaction. He will carefully weigh the chances of future variations in prices, and often take steps, by means of insurance or hedging transactions ... to reduce the aleatory factor in his dealings.” His purpose in this passage is to contrast the businessman’s wariness concerning individual price changes over time, with the businessman’s (at that time) ignorance of changes in the purchasing power of money over time. However, Mises’s description is difficult to explain to a novice, because normally economists would describe the use of futures contracts as themselves “insurance” or “hedging” operations. For example, if a farmer knows he will have a large harvest of wheat to sell in six months, and his ability to make his mortgage payments and pay other expenses depends critically on the price of wheat, the farmer may want to “lock in” the price by selling futures contracts in wheat. On the other side of the transaction, a large operation that makes bread may itself want to lock in the price of one of its major inputs, so that a sudden price spike won’t cripple operations. The bread producer would thus gladly buy the futures contracts issued by the farmer. This is a mutually beneficial arrangement in which no money changes hands in the present, but the two parties today lock in the price at which they will exchange wheat for money in the future. (Technically we have described a forward contract, which is economically very similar to a futures contract.) The use of futures contracts and other derivatives can allow market participants to hedge away their exposure to particular price swings, where they forfeit the potential benefits of a favorable move while avoiding the downside of an unfavorable move. This is the sense in which such contracts can serve as insurance.
在英文版第195-196页，米塞斯写道：“当有人购买（或出售）玉米、棉花或糖的期货时…他非常清楚交易中涉及的风险。他将仔细权衡未来价格变动的可能性，并经常采取措施，通过保险或“对冲交易”…以减少交易中的“偶然”因素。”他在这段文章中的目的是对比商人对个体价格随时间变化的谨慎，以及商人（当时）对货币购买力随时间变化的无知。然而，米塞斯的描述很难向新手解释，因为经济学家通常会将“期货合约”的使用描述为“保险”或“对冲”操作。例如，如果一个农民知道他将在六个月内卖出一大批小麦，并且他支付抵押贷款和其它费用的能力主要取决于小麦的价格，那么他可能希望通过卖出小麦期货合约来“锁定”价格。在交易的另一面，一个生产面包的大型企业本身可能希望锁定其主要投入之一的价格，这样突然的价格上涨就不会对其业务造成重大打击。因此，面包生产商很乐意购买农民发行的期货合约。这是一种互惠互利的安排，目前没有发生货币换手，但今天双方锁定了他们将来用小麦交易货币的价格。（从技术上讲，我们描述了一个“远期合约”，在经济上与期货合约非常相似。）期货合约和其它衍生品的使用可以让市场参与者对冲特定价格波动的风险，在这种情况下，他们放弃了有利举措的潜在好处，同时避免了不利举措的消极影响。这就是这种合同可以作为保险的意义。
Mises warns (pp. 204–06) that a depreciating currency can lead to capital consumption. For a simple example, suppose a man spends $100,000 on a machine that lasts for ten years. If prices are stable (and disregarding interest), the man needs to earn at least $10,000 each year in sales revenue over and above labor and other expenses, in order to account for the depreciation on his machine. If inflation causes him to earn far more than he originally anticipated over the years from the sale of his goods, after setting aside $10,000 each year the man might spend the remaining “profit” on fancy dinners and vacation cruises. However, after ten years (with $100,000 in hand, disregarding interest) the man may discover that because of the fall in the purchasing power of money, a new machine has a price of $200,000. Thus the man unwittingly consumed half of his capital over the decade: he started with one new machine and ended up with the means to buy only half of a new machine. The man realizes that his fancy dinners and cruises were funded not out of profits but by eating away at his business assets.
米塞斯警告（英文版第204-206页），货币贬值可导致资本消耗。举个简单的例子，假设一个男人花10万美元买一台可以使用十年的机器。如果价格稳定（并且无视利息），那么除去人工和其它费用之外，此人每年至少需要赚取10,000美元的销售收入，以抵消其机器的折旧。如果通货膨胀使他从销售商品中赚取的收入远远超过他最初的预期，那么在每年拨出1万美元之后，他可能会把剩余的“利润”花在高档晚餐和度假游轮上。然而，十年后（手头有10万美元，无视利息），该男子可能会发现，由于货币购买力下降，一台新机器的价格为20万美元。因此，这名男子在过去的十年间不知不觉地消耗了一半的资本：他从一台新机器开始，以只够买半台新机器的财产结束。该男子意识到，他花在高档晚餐和度假游轮上的资金，不是来自利润，而是来自蚕食他的商业资产。
新术语
Capital consumption: A metaphor denoting the reduction in capital because of a failure to reinvest enough out of current output.
资本消耗：一种隐喻，表示由于未能从当前产出中获取足够的再投资而导致资本减少。Futures contract: A standardized contract, traded on an organized exchange, where two parties agree to exchange a good at a specified price (the futures price) at a specified future date (the delivery date). As conditions change and alter the futures price pertaining to the delivery date, the exchange will credit or debit the accounts of the buyer and seller of the original futures contract on a daily basis to reflect the change. (If the futures price goes up, the buyer gains and the seller loses, etc.) These daily episodes of marking-to-market restore the market value of the futures contract itself to zero. Upon delivery, the seller of the futures contract delivers the good, while the buyer pays the current spot price for that date, not the futures price as originally specified.
期货合约：在有组织的交易所交易的标准化合约，双方同意在指定的未来日期（交割日期）以指定价格（期货价格）交换商品。随着条件的变化和交割日期货价格的变化，交易所将每天对原始期货合约的买方和卖方的账户进行贷记或借记以反映该变化。（如果期货价格上涨，买方获利，卖方亏损等）这些按市价计价的日常事件将期货合约本身的市场价值恢复为零。交割时，期货合约的卖方交付商品，而买方支付该日期的现货价格，而不是最初指定的期货价格。Forward contract: Similar to a futures contract, though a forward contract is not standardized. Furthermore, there is no daily marking-to-market. On the delivery date, the buyer pays the forward price as originally specified in the contract. Thus the forward contract can achieve a positive or negative market value, as conditions change and cause the actual spot price (on the delivery date) to move above or below the originally specified forward price.
远期合约：与期货合约类似，但远期合约并未标准化。此外，没有每日市值计价。在交割日期，买方支付合约中最初规定的远期价格。因此，随着条件发生变化并导致实际现货价格（在交割日期）高于或低于最初指定的远期价格，远期合约可以实现正或负的市场价值。Hedging transaction: A financial transaction in which an individual attempts to reduce his or her exposure to a market outcome. For example, someone who believes that Stock XYZ will out-perform most other stocks might “go long” by purchasing several thousand shares of it. But to hedge himself against a general fall in the market, he might also “go short” an index fund holding all the stocks in the S&P 500. Thus, even if XYZ falls in price, the investor will still make money, so long as Stock XYZ drops by a smaller amount than most other stocks.
套期保值交易：一种金融交易，个人试图通过这种交易减少其暴露于市场结果的风险。例如，有人认为XYZ股票的表现会超过其它大多数股票，他可能会通过购买几千股XYZ股票来“做多”。但为了对冲市场普遍下跌的风险，他可能还会“做空”一只持有标准普尔500指数所有股票的指数基金。因此，即使XYZ股价下跌，只要其下跌幅度小于大多数其他股票，投资者仍然会赚钱。Aleatory: Dependent on chance, luck, or an uncertain outcome.
偶然（Aleatory）：依赖于机会、运气或不确定的结果。
研究问题
Relate the following comment to Mises’s earlier discussion (p. 61) of the hypothetical possibility of fiat money: “Lenders and borrowers are not in the habit of allowing for possible future fluctuations in the objective exchange value of money.” (p. 195)
将以下评论与米塞斯之前关于法定货币假设可能性的讨论（英文版第61页）联系起来：“放款人和借款人不习惯考虑到未来货币客观交换价值的可能波动。”（英文版第195页）If the purchasing power of money unexpectedly falls, who is hurt—creditors or debtors? (p. 200)
如果货币的购买力意外下降，谁是受害者——债权人还是债务人？（英文版第200页）What is necessary to eliminate the undesirable consequences of “unlimited inflationary policy”? (p. 203)
消除“无限通货膨胀政策”的不良后果的必要性是什么？（英文版第203页）Mises writes, “If the objective exchange value of all the stocks of money in the world could be instantaneously and in equal proportion increased or decreased, [and] if all at once the money-prices of all goods and services could rise or fall uniformly, the relative wealth of individual economic agents would not be affected” (p. 207). Does Mises’s argument assume that everyone holds the same fraction of his or wealth in the form of cash balances, or does it also work if some people hold (say) large amounts of real estate, while others hold mostly cash? (Keep in mind that for this argument Mises has assumed away the problem of contracts for future goods.)
米塞斯写道：“如果世界上所有存量货币的客观交换价值能够瞬间以相同的比例增加或减少，[并且]如果所有商品和服务的货币价格能够一致地上升或下降，那么个别经济主体的相对财富不会受到影响”（英文版第207页）。米塞斯的论点是假设每个人都以现金余额的形式持有相同比例的财富，还是假设一些人持有（比如）大量房地产而其他人大部分持有现金，它也同样有效？（请记住，在这一论点中，米塞斯已经排除了期货合约的问题。）Explain:“Europe had exported ships and rails, metal goods and textiles, furniture and machines, for gold which it little needed or did not need at all, for what it had already was enough for all its monetary transactions.” (p. 211)
解释：“欧洲曾经出口船只和铁路、金属制品和纺织品、家具和机器，以换取它几乎不需要或根本不需要的黄金，因为已有的黄金足够进行所有的货币交易了。”（英文版第211页）
