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烧钱，对人来说可能是很酷的，电影中小马哥烧美钞点烟成了经典，但是当企业也开始这么做，是性感还是危险？
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Firms that burn up $1bn a year are sexy but statistically doomed
每年烧10亿美元的公司很性感但是从统计学上看注定要失败
Five outliers - Chesapeake Energy, Netflix, Nextera Energy, Tesla and Uber - have collectively lost $100bn in the past decade
五个异常值：切萨皮克能源，网飞，新时代能源，特斯拉和优步，在过去十年间共计损失1000亿美元。
【1】YVES SAINTLAURENT, Lady Gaga, David Bowie. Some people do not operate by the same rules as everyone else. Might the same be true of companies? Most bosses complain of being slaves to short-term profit targets. Yet a few flout the orthodoxy in flamboyant fashion. Consider Tesla, a maker of electric cars. This year, so far, it has missed its production targets and lost $1.8bn of free cash flow (the money firms generate after capital investment has been subtracted). No matter. If its founder Elon Musk muses aloud about driverless cars and space travel, its shares rise like a rocket—by 66% since the start of January. Tesla is one of a tiny cohort of firms with a licence to lose billions pursuing a dream. The odds of them achieving it are similar to those of aspiring pop stars and couture designers.
flout：[flaʊt] v. 藐视；轻视；嘲笑
The foolish boy flout his mother's advice.
这个愚蠢的孩子轻视他母亲的劝告。
orthodoxy：['ɔːrθədɑːksi] n. 正统说法；正教；信奉正教
He had remained true to the old orthodoxy.
他一直忠实格守古老的正统观念。
flamboyant：[flæmˈbɔɪənt] adj.艳丽的；火焰似的；过分华丽的 n.凤凰木；火焰色红花
subtract：[səb'trækt] v. 减去；减少
muse：[mjuːz] v. 沉思；冥想 n. 沉思
cohort：[ˈkoʊhɔ:rt] n.（古罗马军队的）步兵大队，军队；一群人
odds：[ɒdz] n. 机率；可能性；差别；投注赔率；让步；优势
伊夫•圣罗兰，Lady Gaga，大卫•鲍伊，总有一些人行事与众不同。公司也可以这样吗？大部分老板常抱怨自己是短期利润目标的奴隶。然而，有一些人用一种招摇的方式表达了对这种正统规则的蔑视。想想电动汽车制造商特斯拉，今年，到目前为止，它没有实现其生产目标，还损失了18亿美元的自由现金流（企业扣除了资本投资后的生产值）。不要紧，只要该公司创始人伊隆•马斯克在自言自语时大声一点，说些无人驾驶的汽车、太空旅行什么的，该公司的股票就会像火箭一样上升，实际上一月以来其股价已经上升了66%。这类企业是一个很小的群体，它们被允许在追求梦想的过程中损失数十亿美元，特斯拉是其中一员。它们实现目标的概率，就和那些有抱负的流行明星和时装设计师能成功的概率差不多。
［2］Investing today for profits tomorrow is what capitalism is all about. Amazon lost $4bn in 2012-14 while building an empire that now makes money. Nonetheless, it is rare for big companies to sustain heavy losses just to expand fast. If you examine the members of the Russell 1000 index of large American firms, only 25 of them, or 3.3%, lost over $1bn of free cash flow in 2016 (all figures exclude financial firms and are based on Bloomberg data). In 2007 the share was 1.4% and in 1997, under 1%. Most billion-dollar losers today are energy firms temporarily in the doldrums as they adjust to a recent plunge in oil prices. Their losses are an accident.
capitalism：[ˈkæpɪtlˌɪzəm] n.资本主义（制度）；资本（或财富）的拥有
sustain：[sə'steɪn] vt. 支持；承受；维持；认可；经受
free cash flow：自由现金流
temporarily：[tempəˈrerɪlɪ] adv.暂时地；临时地
in the doldrums：无精打采；意气消沉；萧条
The economy is in the doldrums.
经济正处于萧条期。
plunge：[plʌndʒ] n. 猛跌，骤降， 骤减
资本主义的本质就是今天投资以求明天获利。2012-2014年，亚马逊损失了40亿美元，建立起今天盈利的企业集团。虽然如此，大公司仅仅为了快速扩张而承受巨大损失仍然是罕见的。如果你调查过美国大型企业的罗素1000指数的成员，就会发现2016年只有25家或者说3.3%的企业自由现金流损失超过10亿（所有数据均来源于彭博社，且不包括金融公司）。2007年这类公司的比例是1.4%，1997年低于1%。今天，损失数十亿美元的大部分是能源公司，它们在适应最近油价的暴跌，暂时处于低迷状态。它们的损失是意外情况。
［3］But a few firms love life in the fast lane. Netflix, Uber and Tesla are tech companies that say their (largely unproven) business models will transform industries. Two others stand out for the sheer persistence of their losses. Chesapeake Energy, a fracking firm at the heart of America’s shale revolution, has lost at least $1bn of free cash flow a year for an incredible 14 years in a row. Nextera Energy, a utility that runs wind and solar plants, and which investors value highly, has managed 12 years on the trot.
in the fast lane：在生活的快车道上；快节奏的(生活)；丰富刺激的(生活)
He was enjoying life in the fast lane.
他尽情享受着丰富多彩的生活。
persistence：[pər'sɪstəns] n. 坚持；毅力
fracking：水力压裂法，液压破碎法
shale：[ʃeɪl] n. 页岩；泥板岩
on the trot：接连地；一个接一个
但有些公司喜欢快节奏的生活。网飞、优步和特斯拉都是科技公司，这些公司称他们（大部分尚未证实）的商业模式会改变产业。另外两家公司因为其损失的持久性而显得突出。切萨皮克能源是一家水力压裂技术公司，处于美国页岩革命的核心。难以置信的是，它已经连续14年每年至少损失10亿美元自由现金流。新时代能源是一家运行风力和太阳能发电厂的公用事业公司，受到投资者的高度重视，它也已经连续12年处于这种状态了。
［4］Collectively these five firms have burned $100bn in the past decade, yet they boast a total market value of about $300bn. Combining punchy valuations with massive losses means taking the entrepreneurial art form to a dizzying extreme. Steve Jobs, Apple’s co-founder, was said to have a “reality distortion field” that allowed him to bend the perception of others (although Apple itself was fairly timorous, losing just $874m in its worst year, in 1993). The experience of the five suggests that bending reality today has three elements: a vision, fast growth, and financing.
collectively：[kə'lektɪvlɪ] adv.全体地，共同地
punchy：[ˈpʌntʃi] adj.言简意赅的；简洁有力的；生气勃勃的；有分量的
entrepreneurial：[ˌɒntrəprə'nɜ:rɪəl] adj.创业的，具有企业精神的；企业
dizzying：[ˈdɪziɪŋ] adj.令人昏乱的，灿烂的
perception：[pərˈsepʃn] n.知觉；观念；觉察（力）
timorous：[ˈtɪmərəs] adj.胆怯的，羞怯的
vision：['vɪʒn] n. 视力；视觉；幻觉；眼光 v. 幻想；设想
过去十年间，这五家公司总计烧了得有1000亿美元，但是其市值总和大约3000亿美元。高额的估值和巨大的损失结合在一起，可谓是把创业的艺术形式达到了一种令人目眩的极端。苹果创始人之一史蒂夫•乔布斯被称为有一种“现实扭曲力场”，让他能扭转别人的观念（尽管苹果本身是相当胆怯的，它最糟糕的一年1993年也只损失了8.74亿美元）。这五家公司的经历表明今天的现实扭曲力场需要三个因素：一个愿景、快速增长和融资能力。
［5］Take the vision thing first. A charismatic leader with a world-changing plan is de rigueur. For its first 23 years Chesapeake was led by Aubrey McClendon, a cocky Oklahoman who pioneered the process of blasting rocks to extract gas and oil (he died last year in a high-speed car crash). Reed Hastings at Netflix plans to destroy the conventional TV industry by selling films and shows over the internet. Like Mr Musk, Travis Kalanick, Uber’s tarnished former boss, dreams of changing how humans travel. Nextera is led by technocrats but their aim is grandiose—to usher in a new generation of energy technology.
charismatic：[ˌkærɪzˈmætɪk] adj.有魅力的；神赐能力的
de rigueur：[dəriˈɡɚr] adj.社交礼节上需要的；按照习俗；按照时尚
cocky：['kɒki] adj. 骄傲的；自大的；太过自信的
pioneer：[ˌpaɪə'nɪə(r)] n. 先锋；开拓者；先驱 v. 开辟；首倡
extract：['ekstrækt] vt. 摘录；提取；拔出；榨出 n. 摘录；精华；榨出物
tarnish：['tɑrnɪʃ] v.玷污；使丧失光泽；使变色；(丧)失(光)泽 n.晦暗；表面变色；污点
technocrat：[ˈteknəkræt] n.技术专家，专家政治论者，技术统治论者
grandiose：['ɡrændiəʊs] adj. 宏伟的；壮观的；浮夸的
usher：['ʌʃər] n. 带位员；招待员 vt. 引导；引入；做招待；担任引座员
先说愿景，必须有一个魅力超凡的领导者，并且此人有一个改变世界的计划。切萨皮克能源起初的23年是由奥布里•麦克伦登领导的，奥布里是一个狂妄自大的俄克拉荷马州人，他首创了通过爆破岩石来提取石油和天然气（此人去年死于一场高速车祸）。网飞的雷德•哈斯汀斯计划通过网上销售电影和综艺节目来摧毁传统电视行业。和马斯克先生一样，优步声名狼藉的前任老板特拉维斯•卡兰尼克梦想于改变人们出行的方式。新时代能源是由技术专家领导的，但是他们的目的非常宏伟——开创新一代能源技术。
［6］The vision needs to be validated by runaway growth. Often firms emphasise a flattering operating measure, such as oil and gas pumped from the ground, the number of rides hailed and so on. Investors need to believe in a high “terminal value”, a point in the future when high, stable profits will arrive. So it helps to show that, hypothetically, profits would gush if breakneck growth were to stop. Uber says it is profitable in cities where it has operated longest, such as San Francisco. Nextera says that if it stopped investing in new capacity, it would make $6bn of free cash flow a year. Netflix amortises the cost of content over periods of up to five years, so reports an accounting profit even as it bleeds cash.
validate：['vælɪdeɪt] vt. 使生效；证实；确认；验证
runaway：['rʌnəweɪ] n. 逃跑者；逃亡 adj. 逃跑的；失控的；迅速的
pump：[pʌmp] n. 泵；抽水机；打气筒；抽水 v. 打气；灌输；抽取；增加
hypothetically：[ˌhaɪpə'θetɪklɪ] adv.假设地，假想地
gush：[ɡʌʃ] v.喷涌；迸出 n.涌出；迸发
breakneck：['breɪknek] adj. 非常危险的；极快的
capacity：[kə'pæsəti] n. 容量；容积；能力；职位
amortise：[ə'mɔ:taɪz] v.分期偿还，摊还（债款）
这种愿景需要通过飞速的增长来验证。企业通常会重视一种讨人喜欢的操作手法，像是从地上抽取的石油和天然气、受欢迎车程的数目等等。投资者需要相信未来出现高额稳定的利润时可以获得一个高的“终值”。所以，它有助于证明，假想情况下高速增长停止时利润会大量涌出。优步说在那些已经运行很久的城市例如旧金山，自己是盈利的。新时代能源说，如果它停止对新增效益的投资，一年就能制造60亿美元的自由现金流。新时代在长达五年的时间内分期偿还内容成本，以报告出会计利润，即使它在流失现金。
［7］The third element is financing to pay for huge cumulative losses. Each of the five firms has been a financial innovator, taking advantage of cheap money and growth-hungry investors. Uber has tapped private capital markets, Nextera has structured part of its business as a partnership, Tesla has taken deposits from customers and also trades environmental tax credits. Chesapeake Energy sparked Wall Street’s lust for shale junk bonds, and Netflix has signed commitments to make $14bn of future payments to studios and artists to buy creative content.
cumulative：[ˈkju:mjəleɪtɪv] adj.累积的；渐增的，追加的
innovator：['ɪnəveɪtə(r)] n. 改革者；刷新者
deposit：[dɪ'pɒzɪt] v. 放置；(使)沉淀；存储；寄存 n. 存款；定金；堆积物
junk bonds：垃圾债券，风险债券（利息高，风险大，用于集资建立、收购新公司等）
第三个因素是融资以偿还累积的巨额损失。这五家公司都是金融创新者，利用了低息贷款和渴望增长的投资者。优步开发了私人资本市场，新时代能源将其部分业务变成了合营，特斯拉从顾客处获得存款，并进行了环境税收抵免的交易。切萨皮克能源引发了华尔街对页岩垃圾债券的强烈欲望，而新时代已经签署了承诺——未来向工作室和艺术家们支付140亿美元以购买其创意内容。
［8］So sustaining a reality distortion field is possible, but the longer it goes on for, the harder it gets. More capital has to be raised and, in order to justify it, the bigger the firm’s projected ultimate size—its terminal value—has to be. Fast growth puts huge strain on managers. At some point the edifice can come tumbling down. The five companies described here have $60bn of borrowings, and one, Chesapeake, is struggling with its debt load.
distortion：[dɪ'stɔːʃn] n. 扭曲；变形；曲解
ultimate：['ʌltɪmət] adj. 根本的；极限的；最后的；终极的 n. 终极；极品；根本
edifice：[ˈedɪfɪs] n. 大厦；宏伟建筑
tumble down：(建筑物)摇摇欲坠，倒塌
所以维持一个现实扭曲力场是可能的，但是其持续时间越长，就越难起作用。为了证明这一点，必须筹措更多的资金，企业的预计最终规模——其终值——也必须更大。快速增长给管理人带来巨大压力。大厦会在某一时刻倒塌。这里提到的五家公司有600亿借款，其中之一的切萨皮克能源还在债务负担下苦不堪言。
Poker face
扑克脸
［9］A few firms other than Amazon have defied the odds. Over the past 20 years Las Vegas Sands, a casino firm, Royal Caribbean, a cruise-line company, and Micron Technology, a chip-maker, each lost $1bn or more for two consecutive years and went on to prosper. But the chances of success are slim. Of the current members of the Russell 1000 index, since 1997 only 37 have lost $1bn or more for at least two years in a row. Of these, 21 still lose money.
casino：[kə'siːnəʊ] n. 娱乐场；赌场
consecutive：[kən'sekjətɪv] adj. 连续的；连贯的
prosper：['prɑːspər] vi. 繁盛；成功；兴旺
in a row：连续，一连
除了亚马逊以外，有几家公司已经有所突破。在过去的20年里，经营赌场的拉斯维加斯金沙公司，邮轮运营商皇家加勒比公司，芯片制造商美光科技公司，他们都曾在连续两年内损失了10亿美元或更多，却持续兴旺着。但是成功的机会很小。1997年以来，在罗素1000指数当前成员中，只有37家公司连续两年以上每年至少亏损10亿美元。其中21家现在还在亏损。
［10］To justify their valuations, the five firms examined by Schumpeter must grow their sales by an estimated 8-33% each year for a decade. Based on the record of all American companies since 1950, and the five firms’ present revenue levels, the probability of this happening ranges between 0.1% and 25%, using statistical tables from Credit Suisse, a bank.
这几家熊彼特审查过的公司要想证明自己的价值，每年的预计销售额增长必须在8%-33%间，保持十年。使用瑞士信贷银行统计表估计，根据1950年以来所有美国公司的记录和这五家公司目前的收入水平，这种情况发生的可能性介于0.1%至25%之间。
［11］Firms that burn piles of cash are often lionised in an era when growth is sluggish and few companies reinvest all their profits. But losing a billion dollars or more a year is a wildly risky affair and the odds are that such businesses will fall flat. This should not be a surprise—hardly anyone can pull off building a fashion empire around androgyny, wearing a raw meat dress to an awards ceremony, or singing about life on Mars.
lionise：['laɪənaɪz] v. 把（某人）视为名人；把（某人）当成要人对待
sluggish：['slʌɡɪʃ] adj. 缓慢的；懒惰的；迟钝的；萧条的；无精打采的
reinvest：[ˌri:ɪn'vest] vt. 再投资于，再授给
androgyny：[æn'drɒdʒɪnɪ] n. 雌雄同体；雌雄同体性
在一个增长迟缓很少有公司将所有利润用于再投资的时代，烧了大量现金的公司常常受到追捧。但是每年损失十亿美元甚至更多仍然非常危险，这样的企业很可能会失败。这一点也不奇怪，几乎没有人能在双性同体的基础上建立一个时尚帝国，穿着生肉礼服参加颁奖典礼，或者在火星上歌唱生活。
所谓的烧钱，其实是公司选择的一种经营策略，这些公司愿意冒着高风险，因为相信可以获得更大的收益。然而如文中所说，从统计上讲这种行为失败的概率更大，即使具备那三个因素，企业想要维持下去也是困难的。一将功成万骨枯，在成功挺过亏损的亚马逊背后，是许多没能见到曙光就“流血而死”的企业，对于大部分公司来说，还是稳扎稳打的好。
英文原文：
http://www.economist.com
讲解：霞姐 / Tiassa / Angel
编排 / 校对：Angel
本次文章翻译为魔力学院原创
版权归魔力学院所有，鼓励转发，转载也可
