巴菲特1961年度信(二)。2024-08-12

英文早读第27篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。

A Word About Par
关于标准

The outstanding item of importance in my selection of partners, as well as in my subsequent relations with them, has been the determination that we use the same yardstick. If my performance is poor, I expect partners to withdraw, and indeed, I should look for a new source of investment for my own funds. If performance is good, I am assured of doing splendidly, a state of affairs to which I am sure I can adjust.
在我选择合伙人尤为重要的一点,也是在我之后同他们联系中尤为重要的,是我们使用同样的准绳。如果我们的表现差,我希望合伙人取回资金,当然,我也应该为我自己的资金寻找新的投资。如果表现是好的,我确定做的很好,我也确信我也可以适应这样的状态。

The rub, then, is in being sure that we all have the same ideas of what is good and what is poor. I believe in establishing yardsticks prior to the act; retrospectively, almost anything can be made to look good in relation to something or other.
问题在于,我们确信我们有同样的对于是好事坏的想法。我相信建立准绳优先于行动;回顾过去,几乎任何事都可以显得相对一些事或另一些事更好。

I have continuously used the Dow-Jones Industrial Average as our measure of par. It is my feeling that three years is a very minimal test of performance, and the best test consists of a period at least that long where the terminal level of the Dow is reasonably close to the initial level.
我一直使用道琼斯工业指数作为我们表现的标准。我感觉三年时很小的表现测试,最好的测试时常应该包含一段道琼斯最终水平基本与初始水平一致的跨度。

While the Dow is not perfect (nor is anything else) as a measure of performance, it has the advantage of being widely known, has a long period of continuity, and reflects with reasonably accuracy the experience of investors generally with the market. I have no objection to any other method of measurement of general market performance being used, such as other stock market averages, leading diversified mutual stock funds, bank common trust funds, etc.
尽管道琼斯指数做为表现的衡量方法不是完美的(任何别的也不是),但它的优势包括广为人知,长期持续,相对准确反应了投资者在股市的经历。我对任何其它用来衡量股市表现的方法都不反对,例如其他股市指数,领先的分散共同股票基金,银行一般信托基金等等。

You may feel I have established an unduly short yardstick in that it perhaps appears quite simple to do better than an unmanaged index of 30 leading common stocks. Actually, this index has generally proven to be a reasonably tough competitor. Arthur Wiesenberger's classic book on investment companies lists performance for the 15 years 1946-60, for all leading mutual funds. There is presently over 20 billion invested in mutual funds, so the experience of these funds represents, collectively, the experience of many million investors. My own belief, though the figures are not obtainable, is that portfolios of most leading investment counsel organizations and bank trust departments have achieved results similar to these mutual funds.
你或许感受到我建立了一个过于挫的尺码,似乎打败30个没有被管理的领先的一般股票是很简单的。事实上这个指数已经被证明是相当难搞的对手。亚瑟 文森伯格关于投资公司的代表书籍中列出了所有领先的共同基金在1946至1960这15年间的表现。现在大约有200亿美金投资到共同基金,因此,总的来说,这些基金的经历代表着数百万投资者的经历。我相信尽管数字无法获得,大部分领先的投资咨询机构和银行信托部门取得的结果与这些共同基金类似。

Wiesenberger lists 70 funds in his "Charts & Statistics" with continuous records since 1946. I have excluded 32 of these funds for various reasons since they were balanced funds (therefore not participating fully in the general market rise), specialized industry funds, etc. Of the 32 excluded because I felt a comparison would not be fair, 31 did poorer than the Dow, so they were certainly not excluded to slant the conclusions below.
文森伯格在他的图表与统计中列举了70家基金从1946年间的连续记录。我排除了其中的32家基金,因为各种原因,例如他们是平衡基金(因此不能完全参与到市场上涨),特定工业基金等等。这32家排除的基金我觉得拿来比较是不公平的,但是31家表现低于道琼斯指数,因此他们当然不会排除在下面的结论中。

Of the remaining 38 mutual funds whose method of operation I felt was such as to make a comparision with the Dow reasonable, 32 did poorer than the Dow, and 6 did better. The 6 doing better at the end of 1960 had assets of about 1 billion, and the 32 doing poorer had assets of about 6-1/2 billion. None of the six that were superior beat the Dow by more than a few percentage points a year.
在这剩余的38家我认为他们的操作方法与道琼斯指数比较是合理的基金中,32家表现低于道琼斯指数,6家表现更好。这6家表现更好的基金在1960年末拥有资产大约10亿美金,这32家表现更差的积极拥有资产大约65亿美金。这6家中没有一家明显领先道琼斯指数多个百分点。

Below I present the year-by-year results for our period of operation (excluding 1961 for which I don't have exact data, although rough figures indicate no variance from the 1957-60 figures) for the two largest common stock open-end investment companies (mutual funds) and the two largest closed-end investment companies:
下面我按年化结果从我们的运作期间(排除了1961年,因为我不知道具体的数据,尽管粗略数据表明同1957年到1960年间的数据没有区别)呈现了两家最大的一般股市开放投资公司(共同基金)和两家最大的封闭式投资公司:


来源于穆迪银行和金融1961年册

复利数据

Massachusetts Investors Trust has net assets of about 1.8 billion; Investors Stock Fund about 1 billion; Tri-Continental Corporation about .5 billion; and Lehman Corporation about 350 million; or a total of over 3.5 billion.
马萨诸塞投资者信托拥有净资产大约18亿美金;投资者股市基金大约10亿美金;三大陆公司大约5亿美金;雷曼公司大约3.5亿美金;总计超过35亿美金。

I do not present the above tabulations and information with the idea of indicting investment companies. My own record of investing such huge amounts of money, with restrictions on the degree of activity I might take in companies where we had investments, would be no better, if as good. I present this data to indicate the Dow as an investment competitor is no pushover, and the great bulk of investment funds in the country are going to have difficulty in bettering, or perhaps even matching, its performance.
我呈现上面的图表和信息不是为了控告投资公司。投资如此大规模的资金,同时限制我在投资的公司中可能采取的行动,我的表现不会更好,甚至一样好。我呈现这些数据是表明道琼斯指数作为投资对手,不是容易被打败的,国家大量的投资基金打败,甚至媲美他的表现都是困难的。

Our portfolio is very different from that of the Dow. Our method of operation is substantially different from that of mutual funds.
我们的投资组合与道琼斯指数构成非常不同。我们的操作方法也与那些共同基金差别巨大。

However, most partners, as all alternative to their investment in the partnership, would probably have their funds invested in a media producing results comparable to the Dow, therefore, I feel it is a fair test of performance.
然而,大部分合伙人完全有权切换他们的投资在这些合伙基金中,他们更希望他们的资金投资在表现相对道琼斯指数更好的地方,因此我认为这是完全公平的对标。

6.subsequent:随后的;之后的;后来的
7.yardstick:准绳;(好坏或成败的)衡量标准;标尺
8.splendid:华丽的;壮丽的;壮观的;豪华的;雄伟的;非常好的
9.rub:擦;摩擦(尤指引起疼痛的);问题;困难
10.establish:建立;设立;确立;创立;使立足
11.retrospective:回顾的;涉及以往的
12.continuity:连续性;连接;一致性
13.diversified:多样化的;分散经营的
14.unduly:过分;过度;不适当的
15.collectively:共同地;集体地;总的来说
16.counsel:顾问;劝告;忠告;建议
17.exclude:排除;把……排斥在外;防止……进入;不放在考虑之列
18.slant:倾斜;歪斜;有倾向性的陈述;有偏向的报道;斜面;歪斜的
19.tabulation:列表;造表
20.indict:起诉;控告
21.pushover:容易打败的对手;容易做的事情
22.alternative:可供替代的;非传统的;另类的

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