练习材料

Lesson 14-1 The Butterfly Effect

Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they are worthless.

The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see.

The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere.

/ˈlɛsən/ 14-1 /ðə/ /ˈbʌtərˌflaɪ/ /ɪˈfɛkt/ 

/bɪˈɑnd/ /tu/ /ɔr/ /θri/ /deɪz/, /ðə/ /wɜrldz/ /bɛst/ /ˈwɛðər/ /fɔrˈkæsts/ /ɑr/ /ˈspɛkjələtɪv/, /ænd/ /bɪˈɑnd/ /sɪks/ /ɔr/ /ˈsɛvən/ /ðeɪ/ /ɑr/ /ˈwɜrθləs/.

/ðə/ /ˈbʌtərˌflaɪ/ /ɪˈfɛkt/ /ɪz/ /ðə/ /ˈrizən/. /fɔr/ /smɔl/ /ˈpisəz/ /ʌv/ /ˈwɛðər/ -- /ænd/ /tu/ /ə/ /ˈgloʊbəl/ /ˈfɔrˌkæstər/, /smɔl/ /kæn/ /min/ /ˈθʌndərˌstɔrmz/ /ænd/ /ˈblɪzərdz/ -- /ˈɛni/ /priˈdɪkʃən/ /dɪˈtɪriəˌreɪts/ /ˈræpədli/. /ˈɛrərz/ /ænd/ /ənˈsɜrtəntiz/ /ˈmʌltəˌplaɪ/, /kæˈskeɪdɪŋ/ /ˈʌpwərd/ /θru/ /ə/ /ʧeɪn/ /ʌv/ /ˈtɜrbjələnt/ /ˈfiʧərz/, /frʌm/ /dʌst/ /ˈdɛvəlz/ /ænd/ /skwɔlz/ /ʌp/ /tu/ /ˈkɑntənənt/-/saɪz/ /ˈɛdiz/ /ðæt/ /ˈoʊnli/ /ˈsætəˌlaɪts/ /kæn/ /si/.

/ðə/ /ˈmɑdərn/ /ˈwɛðər/ /ˈmɑdəlz/ /wɜrk/ /wɪð/ /ə/ /grɪd/ /ʌv/ /pɔɪnts/ /ʌv/ /ði/ /ˈɔrdər/ /ʌv/ /ˈsɪksti/ /ˈmaɪəlz/ /əˈpɑrt/, /ænd/ /ˈivɪn/ /soʊ/, /sʌm/ /ˈstɑrtɪŋ/ /ˈdeɪtə/ /hæz/ /tu/ /bi/ /gɛst/, /sɪns/ /graʊnd/ /ˈsteɪʃənz/ /ænd/ /ˈsætəˌlaɪts/ /ˈkænɑt/ /si/ /ˈɛvriˌwɛr/. /bʌt/ /səˈpoʊz/ /ði/ /ɜrθ/ /kʊd/ /bi/ /ˈkʌvərd/ /wɪð/ /ˈsɛnsərz/ /speɪst/ /wʌn/ /fʊt/ /əˈpɑrt/, /ˈraɪzɪŋ/ /æt/ /wʌn/-/fʊt/ /ˈɪntərvəlz/ /ɔl/ /ðə/ /weɪ/ /tu/ /ðə/ /tɑp/ /ʌv/ /ði/ /ˈætməˌsfɪr/.