英文早读第42篇,选自巴菲特年度信,友才翻译。
The Joys of Compounding
复利的乐趣
I have it from unreliable sources that the cost of the voyage Isabella originally underwrote for Columbus was approximately 30,000. This has been considered at least a moderately successful utilization of venture capital. Without attempting to evaluate the psychic income derived from finding a new hemisphere, it must be pointed out that even had squatter's rights prevailed, the whole deal was not exactly another IBM. Figured very roughly, the 30,000 invested at 4% compounded annually would have amounted to something like 2,000,000,000,000 (that's 2 trillion for those of you who are not government statisticians) by 1962. Historical apologists for the Indians of Manhattan may find refuge in similar calculations. Such fanciful geometric progressions illustrate the value of either living a long time, or compounding your money at a decent rate. I have nothing particularly helpful to say on the former point.
我从不可靠的源头得知伊莎贝拉号远航船初次去哥伦布的承销花费大约3万美金。这已经被认为至少是一个风险投资中等成功的利用。不用试图评估从发现新半球带来的心理收益,必须指出即使强占者的权力得到了,这整个交易也并只是另一个IBM。非常简单地测算,3万美金以年化4%复利计算到1962年将会达到差不多2,000,000,000,000(如果你不是政府统计员,这些年叫2兆美金)。历史评论家对曼哈顿地印第安人在类似的计算中也会找到慰藉。如此令人兴奋的几何进程表明无论是活得久还是以合适比率复利金钱地价值。对于前面一点我没有什么觉得特别有帮助的要说。
The following table indicates the compounded value of 100,000 at 5%, 10% and 15% for 10, 20 and 30 years. It is always startling to see how relatively small differences in rates add up to very significant sums over a period of years. That is why, even though we are shooting for more, we feel that a few percentage points advantage over the Dow is a very worthwhile achievement. It can mean a lot of dollars over a decade or two.
下面的表格演示了10万美金分别以5%,10%和15%在10,20,30年地复利价值。这经常使人大吃一惊看到如此相对小地比率上的差异加在一起在很多年后累积了巨大的金额。这就是为什么,即使我们在获得更多,我们也感觉到比道琼斯指数些许的百分比优势也是非常有价值的成就。他也为这在10年或者20年后很多美金。
Our Method of Operation
我们的运作方法
Our avenues of investment break down into three categories. These categories have different different behavior characteristics, and the way our money is divided among them will have an important effect on our results, relative to the Dow, in any given year. The actual percentage division among categories is to some degree planned, but a great extent, accidental, based upon availability factors.
我们的投资之路划分为3个范畴。这些范畴有不同的行为特点,并且我们的钱在他们之间的分配方式对我们的结果有重要影响,在任何一年相比于道琼斯指数。实际在这些范畴里的百分比某种程度上是计划了的,但是很大程度上,偶然的,取决于可获得的因素。
The first section consists of generally undervalued securities (hereinafter called "generals") where we have nothing to say about corporate policies and no timetable as to when the undervaluation may correct itself. Over the years, this has been our largest category of investment, and more money has been made here than in either of the other categories. We usually have fairly large positions (5% to 10% of our total assets) in each of five or six generals, with smaller positions in another ten or fifteen.
第一部分包括一般类被低估股票(以下简称为“一般类”),在这里我们对公司策略说不上话并且没有低估什么时间可以自我修复的时间表。经过这些年,这一类已经成为了我们投资的最大范畴,赚到了比其他范畴更多的钱。我们通常在5、6个一般类中拥有相当大的位置(占我们总资产的5%到10%),同时在其它10或15个占据小的位置。
Sometimes these work out very fast; many times they take years. It is difficult at the time of purchase to know any compelling reason why they should appreciate in price. However, because of this lack of glamour or anything pending which might create immediate favorable market action, they are available at very cheap prices. A lot of value can be obtained for the price paid. This substantial excess of value creates a comfortable margin of safety in each transaction. Combining this individual margin of safety with diversity of commitments creates a most attractive package of safety and appreciation potential. We do not go into these generals with the idea of getting the last nickel, but are usually quite content selling out at some intermediate level between our purchase price and what we regard as fair value to a private owner.
有时这些工作产出非常快;很多时候他们需要数年。在购买的时候就知道任何关于他们令人信服的价格为何提升的理由是困难的。然而,因为缺乏魅力或其他任何即将发生的或许立即引起市场欢迎的事,他们可以以非常便宜的价格得到。在这个支付的价格上很多价值可以得到。这个巨大的价值溢价产生了在每笔交易中舒适的安全区。结合这些独特的安全区和多样化的下注形成了最具吸引力的安全区和增值潜力组合。我们进入这些一般类不会有赚到最后一便士的主意,但是经常对以某种介于我们购买价格和我们认为对私人拥有者公平价格的中间水平卖出相当满意。
27.voyage:航行;(尤指)航海、航天
28.underwrote:包销;承销;承保;承担经济责任;承担保险责任
29.moderately:适中;适度;适量;一般地;勉强地
30.utilization:利用;应用;效用
31.psychic:通灵的;心灵的;灵魂的;超自然的;有特异功能的
32.derive:得到;获得;产生;得到;起源
33.hemisphere:(球体的、地球的)半球;(尤指)北半球、南半球
34.squatter:擅自占地者;擅自占用他人房子的人;矮而宽的;矮胖的
35.prevail:盛行;流行;普遍存在;(尤指长时间战斗后)战胜;被接受
36.statistician:统计学家;统计员
37.apologist:(尤指宗教或政治方面的)辩护者;辩解者
38.refuge:避难;避难所;庇护;收容所;慰藉;给予……庇护
39.fanciful:想象的;花哨的;空想的;式样奇特的
40.geometric:几何的;图形学的
41.decent:像样的;正派的;得体的;适当的;合乎礼节的;穿好了衣服的
42.startling:惊人的;让人震惊的;极鲜亮的;使惊讶;使大吃一惊
43.avenue:大街;途径;选择;林荫道;手段
44.compelling:令人信服的;引人入胜的;扣人心弦的;不可抗拒的