Part Three: The Process of Regular Investing
11.和其他假把式相比，为什么说定投策略是最佳的不战而胜的策略？
回答：
对比frequent traders，策略是这样的：短期内低买高卖赚钱
第一、根据塔勒布的随机漫步（random walk），短期内低买高卖成功的可能性为 50%（买低）*50%（卖高）=25%。
第二、基于事实的判断有滞后（suspended judgement）。赚取的部分并没有他们自己认为的那么多。
第三、学到技能后会尝试，会试错。
第四、还会有频繁的交易费用。（来自 Swedish study）
对于Regular Investotrs来说，定投策略施行是这样的：Each time they buy they are "buying low", because, if they eventually decide to sell after two or more full cycles, the price that they initially bought at will always seem cheap. See? That well-known secret of "buy low and sell high" is always working for regular investors
这就是不战而胜。
12.为什么避开股市里最糟糕的日子不现实且不是好策略？
回答：
根据来源——statistics from JP Morgan, six of the ten best days in the stock market occurred within two weeks of the worst ten days.
结论：最好的日子往往和最糟糕的日子在一起。所以不现实。
what should we do?
We should do nothing!其实还是，保持定投。
当股市糟糕时，为什么想避开？
在心理上，叫损失厌恶。另外，还有人们更容易受眼前情况的影响，而如果把衡量的眼光放远，比如时间线放到1年、2年甚至5年内看，可能眼前下跌的情形在5年前出现过，甚至更糟，但有价值的标的，还会上扬。
13.为什么投资不是普通生意?
回答：
普通生意需要计算每天的收益和成本，当收益大于成本时，生意盈利。投资不一样，投资没有开办成本，没有日常成本，用于投资的钱不应该考虑成本，不应该考虑期限。或者说期限是至少走完两个大周期。对于传统股票市场，是20-30年，那时走完两个大周期，自己就该退休了。对于digital asset,是8年。
能帮助我渡过这段时光（两个大周期）的，有：
（1）蛋壳投资
the yolk是你的日常开销，自己在这方面已经越来越不舍得；
the egg white是为风险做的准备，要够厚；
外面最薄的那层蛋壳，才是可以拿出来投资的部分。
（2）心理建设
（3）场外赚钱能力
14、如何提升自己的场外持续赚钱能力
回答：
(1)upgrade of a person's personal business model
Selling the same bit of time repeatedly is the most important upgrade of a person's personal business model,like publishing books and teaching online,writing a popular software
（2）sales
Sales is buying other people's time and then selling it repeatedlyWhat is the best thing to sell? It must be something that people****need, and something that requires continuous communication to complete the sale.effective communicationWhat is the core of selling? Trust.（think in long time）
（3）cooperability
两点： enough special skills 和not complaining.
cooperability——Being good at cooperating with others is actually also a small upgrade to your personal business model
there is only one reason for poor cooperability: they are not able to do their part well enough.
The other party would focus on doing their part of the cooperation well
If you try to cooperate with someone but they are unwilling, the most probable reason isn't that they don't understand your value, it's that you don't have enough special skills to make them want to cooperate with you.
If you are over thirty，What's most important at this stage?
The correct answer seems too obvious: honesty.Honest to other people treat the learning of knowledge in a honest way.
看到这里：定投做好的三个关键点，我认为有：
1.选择长期来看有价值的标的
2.定投
3.场外赚钱能力
Words.本周读到的新单词
momentum 势头
subtle 微妙的
guise 伪装
slump 猛跌
review 检查; 审查
armor 盔甲
