The Economist explains

《经济学人》论道

Why Italy’s troubled economy isreturning to form

为什么意大利的糟糕经济迎来了春天？

The country is benefiting from the broader upswing in Europe, though political problems loom

意大利正受惠于欧洲广泛的经济上行，尽管政治问题隐现

The Economist explains

Sep13th 2017 by J.H. | ROME

THE Italian economy is experiencing an unexpectedly strong recovery. The latest good news came on September 12th with the release of figures showing that the national unemployment rate had fallen 0.4percentage points during the second quarter to 11.2%. The day before, the government’s statisticians reported a 4.4% year-on-year increase in industrial output. Currently Italian GDP is growing at 1.5% a year. That is still modest—less than the 2.2% being achieved by the euro zone as a whole. But the gap has been narrowing. Is the Italian economy, which for years has been a brake on the progress of the single-currency area, at last getting back up to speed?

意大利的经济正在经历着出人意料的强势回升。根据9月12日发布的数据，该国失业率在第二季度下降了0.4个百分点至11.2%，这是最新的利好消息。就在前一天，政府统计员也汇报了该国工业产量与去年同比增长了4.4.％。眼下，意大利国内生产总值（GDP）年涨幅为1.5%。这个数字不算大－少于目前欧元区整体的2.2%，但是差距正在缩小。是不是意大利的经济－这个多年来单一货币区前进的刹车，终于开始解刹提速了？

Italy’s prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni of the centre-left Democratic Party (PD), said the rise in industrial production “would have been unthinkable only two yearsago”. But he might just as validly have chosen a much longer time span: the Italian economy has been wallowing in the shallows for almost two decades. It repeatedly grew more slowly than other European economies in the good times and shrank faster in the bad ones. The financial and euro crises of 2008-11 made things a lot worse. But the underlying problems, which include low productivity, too few big corporations, sky-high public debt, a fragmented banking system, limited competition, slow civil justice and underfunded, underperforming universities, were all handicaps before.

意大利的总理，来自中左派民主党（PD）的保罗·真蒂洛尼（Paolo Gentiloni），说本国工业产量的增加“仅仅两年前都是不可想的”。不过，如果他把这个期限放得更长远的话更加妥当：意大利的经济在差不多过去二十年里都是泥菩萨过江、沙滩上打滚（滑）。经济好的时候，它总是上升得比其它欧洲经济体慢；不好的时候，又缩水得快。2008年到2011年的金融和欧元危机导致情况大幅恶化。当然本国自身的问题，包括：生产力低下、大型企业紧缺、国债高筑、银行系统支离破碎、竞争有限、公务司法效率低下且资金不足、高等院校资质不佳，这些短板以前就存在了。

These structural defects persist and make it hard to be unequivocally optimistic. Most economists agree Italy is, to a large extent, benefiting from the broader upswing in Europe. It has long depended heavily on exports, and Germany and France are its biggest customers. But important changes have been introduced. A state bail-out in July of Italy’s oldest bank, Montedei Paschi di Siena, and the rescue of two lenders in the Veneto region has left the financial sector looking much healthier. The banks have also begun offloading a mountain of bad loans. Oxford Economics, a think-tank, calculates that deals so far announced suggest €60bn-70bn ($72bn-84bn), or about a third of the total, can be sold off by the end of the year. That in turn should encourage bankers to lend more freely, spurring further growth.

这些结构性缺陷的存在很难让人明确乐观地看待意大利经济。多数经济学家都认同，意大利在很大程度上是得益于欧洲广泛的经济上行。该国经济长期以来都严重依赖出口，德国和法国是其最大客户。但个中还是发生了一些重要变化。今年7月对意大利最老银行－西亚那银行（Monte dei Paschi di Siena）的国家纾困以及两位出资方对威尼托（Veneto）大区的援救使得该国金融界看起来健康很多。各家银行也开始清理成山的不良贷款。根据智囊机构牛津经济研究院（Oxford Economics）的计算，目前已公布的交易意味着600-700亿欧元(720-840亿美元)、或约1/3交易可在年底出清变现。那反过来会鼓励银行更自主地放贷，由此进一步刺激经济。

Arguably, the biggest potential snag is not economic, butpolitical. Structural reforms usually angervested interests. They need governments with agreed programmes and stable majorities, able to weather temporary unpopularity. Italy’s next election, which has to be held by May, is likely to produce anything but. After being mauled by the Constitutional Court, the electoral laws—one for each of the houses of parliament—are based largely on proportional representation. Unless new rules can be agreed before next spring (and there is no real sign yet that they can), the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) should win 25-30% of the seats. Since the M5S refuses to co-operate with any of the mainstream parties, it could force the formation of a government that includes disparate elements of the right and left. The most likely alternative on current poll showings is a conservative minority coalition including Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, the protectionist Northern League and a smaller party with its roots in neo-fascism. The chances of such a government agreeing on a liberal reform agenda are remote.

但可议的是，最大的潜在障碍不在经济，而在政治。结构改革往往会恼怒到既得利益集团。他们需要在政府中达成议定项目、获得稳定多数，以此度过短期内的不得人心。将必须于于明年5月举行的意大利下届大选有可能一无所获。选举法在被宪法法院修改后（选举法分别对应议会两院），很大程度上都基于比例代表制。除非在明年春季前达成新法规（目前看来没有实际迹象表明他们能做到这一点），否则反对建制的五星运动党（Five Star Movement－M5S）就有可能赢得25-30%的席位。由于该党（M5S）拒绝和任何主流党派合作，它可以推动成立一个包括左右不同党派成员的政府内阁。根据目前民调现实，最有可能的方案是促成一个保守的少数派联盟，包括西尔维奥.贝卢斯科尼（Silvio Berlusconi）的前进意大利党（Forza Italia），保护主义的北方联盟党（Northern League）以及一个植根于新法西斯主义的小党派。而让这样的内阁就自由改革议程达成一致，几率万分渺小。

英文链接：https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/09/economist-explains-10