Structure:
1. Government and Bank of English reported that Britons will be worse off if withdrawing from the EU.
2. GDP per person will be lower.
3. NIESR and the UK in a Changing Europe show that the deal will reduce GDP per person by 3% and 1.9% respectively.
4. If it was no-deal Brexit, GDP per person would be reduced by 8.1%, 3.7% and 3.5% according to the government, NIESR and the UK in a Changing Europe respectively.
5. All these forecasts could be proved wrong later on, but GDP per person is indeed lower than where it would have been without the Brexit vote.
6. Reasons for lower GDP per person and productivity growth: drop in trade with the EU of 40%, cut in foreign investment, less EU immigration
7. Offsets have limited influence: deregulation, savings on net payments into the EU budget, benefits of free trade deals with other countries are small
8. Brexit will make Britons poorer.
Excerpts:
1. They make gloomy reading for Brexiteers who think leaving the EU will boost the economy. The message is that Britons will be worse off with any plausible form of Brexit.
2. Even on benign assumptions about its deal, GDP per person will be 0.6% lower than otherwise in 15 years' time.
3. This is mainly because they model an "orderly" no deal, which reverts easily to normal trade terms while mitigating the damage.
4. GDP per person is some 2% below where it would have been without the Brexit vote.
5. Nor are Brexiteers' dreamt-of offsets big enough.
6. A fair conclusion is that even hardliners should admit that Brexit will make Britons poorer. Their goal should be justified on grounds other than money.
